{ "slug": "arbre-causes", "nom": "Arbre des causes", "numero": 32, "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "question": "Quels événements et conditions pourraient expliquer un manque précis, et quels liens restent à vérifier ?", "consigne": "Reconstituer la chronologie de l'incident fictif, distinguer faits et relations proposées, puis marquer les branches encore incertaines.", "etapes": [ "Limiter l'étude au cas documentaire choisi, sans prétendre expliquer les 120 commandes.", "Ordonner les quatre traces de modification, dossier, clôture et réception.", "Relier les nœuds en nommant les conditions de survenue et de non-détection proposées.", "Conserver les hypothèses amont ouvertes et préparer leur vérification avant une conclusion causale ferme." ], "entrees": [ "ana_evenements_incident", "ana_arbre_causes", "ana_essais_controles" ], "resultat_pedagogique": "L'arbre distingue le manque à réception, la discordance du dossier, une non-détection proposée et deux hypothèses de gouvernance. La chronologie rend le raisonnement contrôlable. Elle ne transforme pas la coexistence de faits en relation nécessaire ou suffisante ; l'essai soutient un mécanisme dans un autre sous-cas.", "livrables": [ "Chronologie sourcée de l'incident", "Arbre avec branches confirmées dans le scénario ou encore hypothétiques" ], "vigilance": [ "Ne pas dessiner une porte ET/OU comme vérité logique si les relations ne sont pas démontrées.", "Ne pas généraliser un incident à la population client ou confondre absence de trace et absence d'action." ], "lecons": [ "hypotheses-causes" ], "phases": [ "analyser" ], "statut_donnees": "entierement_synthetiques", "scenario": { "id": "CAS-CMD", "nom": "Fiabiliser les commandes complètes", "perimetre": "De la demande validée à la réception par le client", "debut": "2026-03-02", "fin": "2026-06-28", "statut": "Jeu synthétique de référence et après simulé, projection financière séparée" }, "tables": { "ana_evenements_incident": [ { "id": "ANA-EVT-01", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0006", "ordre_evenement": 1, "heure_locale": "2026-03-02T08:00:00+01:00", "evenement": "Le client ajoute un dessert au dossier fictif.", "nature": "Trace_synthetique", "preuve_id": "ANA-E05" }, { "id": "ANA-EVT-02", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0006", "ordre_evenement": 2, "heure_locale": "2026-03-02T08:08:00+01:00", "evenement": "L'ancien dossier est présent au poste ; la version attendue n'y figure pas.", "nature": "Trace_synthetique", "preuve_id": "ANA-E05" }, { "id": "ANA-EVT-03", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0006", "ordre_evenement": 3, "heure_locale": "2026-03-02T08:15:00+01:00", "evenement": "Le colis est clos sans trace de rapprochement à la dernière version.", "nature": "Trace_synthetique", "preuve_id": "ANA-E05" }, { "id": "ANA-EVT-04", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0006", "ordre_evenement": 4, "heure_locale": "2026-03-02T11:00:00+01:00", "evenement": "Le dossier pédagogique signale le dessert manquant à réception client.", "nature": "Trace_synthetique", "preuve_id": "ANA-E05" } ], "ana_arbre_causes": [ { "id": "ANA-N01", "parent_id": "", "rang": 1, "noeud": "Dessert manquant dans un cas de commande modifiée", "relation_parent": "Effet_etudie", "statut": "Fait_du_scenario", "preuve_id": "ANA-E05" }, { "id": "ANA-N02", "parent_id": "ANA-N01", "rang": 2, "noeud": "Le dossier utilisé ne reprend pas l'ajout du dessert", "relation_parent": "Mecanisme_propose", "statut": "Etaye_dans_rejeu_distinct", "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-N03", "parent_id": "ANA-N01", "rang": 3, "noeud": "La protection finale n'a pas rapproché le contenu de la dernière version", "relation_parent": "Condition_de_non_detection_proposee", "statut": "A_confirmer_sur_incident", "preuve_id": "ANA-E05" }, { "id": "ANA-N04", "parent_id": "ANA-N02", "rang": 4, "noeud": "La transmission et la version faisant foi ne sont pas maîtrisées", "relation_parent": "Hypothese_amont", "statut": "Hypothese_a_verifier", "preuve_id": "ANA-E04" }, { "id": "ANA-N05", "parent_id": "ANA-N03", "rang": 5, "noeud": "Les acteurs et le critère de validation de modification restent à préciser", "relation_parent": "Hypothese_amont", "statut": "Hypothese_a_verifier", "preuve_id": "ANA-E01" } ], "ana_essais_controles": [ { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-11", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-11", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C041", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-11-01", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-01", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 2, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-01-10", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-10", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 3, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-18", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-18", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 4, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-16", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-16", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C042", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 5, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-01-20", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-20", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C042", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 6, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-10", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-10", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 7, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-10-08", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-08", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C042", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 8, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-10-18", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-18", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 9, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-09", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-09", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 10, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-11-02", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-02", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 11, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-07", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-07", 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"Hypothese_a_verifier", "preuve_id": "ANA-E04" }, { "rang": 5, "noeud": "Les acteurs et le critère de validation de modification restent à préciser", "parent_id": "ANA-N03", "relation_parent": "Hypothese_amont", "statut": "Hypothese_a_verifier", "preuve_id": "ANA-E01" } ], "preuves": [ { "id": "ANA-E03", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "type": "essai_controle", "titre": "80 rejeux synthétiques croisant deux facteurs", "description": "Les mêmes 20 dossiers fictifs modifiés sont rejoués sous quatre conditions : concordance documentaire oui/non, vérification de liste oui/non. Ordre randomisé, même mix et mêmes moyens. Les résultats sont fabriqués pour apprendre la méthode ; ils ne démontrent aucun résultat réel et ne prédisent ni le taux client ni le ROI.", "statut": "simule", "date": "2026-04-22" }, { "id": "ANA-E04", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "type": "plan_verification", "titre": "Décisions sur le statut des hypothèses", "description": "Synthèse du 24 avril après les hypothèses du 20, les traces du 21 et les rejeux du 22 avril. La concordance et la vérification sont étayées seulement dans cet essai synthétique. Les liens de gouvernance et les autres mécanismes restent à vérifier sur le terrain.", "statut": "simule", "date": "2026-04-24" }, { "id": "ANA-E05", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "type": "chronologie_incident", "titre": "Chronologie fictive d'un dessert manquant", "description": "Collecte analytique le 21 avril de quatre traces historiques synthétiques de mars : modification, document présenté au poste, fermeture du colis et constat à réception. L'enchaînement proposé n'est pas généralisé à tous les défauts.", "statut": "simule", "date": "2026-04-21" } ], "colonnes": { "ana_evenements_incident": [ { "name": "id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "commande_id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "ordre_evenement", "type": "INTEGER", "not_null": true }, { "name": "heure_locale", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "evenement", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "nature", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "preuve_id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true } ], "ana_arbre_causes": [ { "name": "id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "parent_id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "rang", "type": "INTEGER", "not_null": true }, { "name": "noeud", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "relation_parent", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "statut", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "preuve_id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true } ], "ana_essais_controles": [ { "name": "id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "scenario_id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "dossier_rejeu", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "document_concordant", "type": "INTEGER", "not_null": true }, { "name": "liste_verifiee", "type": "INTEGER", "not_null": true }, { "name": "incomplete_rejeu", "type": "INTEGER", "not_null": true }, { "name": "operateur_id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true }, { "name": "articles_commandes", "type": "INTEGER", "not_null": true }, { "name": "ordre_essai", "type": "INTEGER", "not_null": true }, { "name": "preuve_id", "type": "TEXT", "not_null": true } ] } }