{
  "slug": "delai-retour",
  "nom": "Délai de retour",
  "numero": 38,
  "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
  "question": "À quel mois les flux cumulés hypothétiques couvrent-ils les 40 000 euros ?",
  "consigne": "Lire les flux mensuels depuis le mois zéro et identifier le franchissement, puis examiner le scénario de retard.",
  "etapes": [
    "Vérifier l'investissement négatif au mois zéro.",
    "Cumuler 2 000 euros nets par mois après entrée en régime sous la convention centrale.",
    "Identifier le premier solde non négatif.",
    "Comparer avec un démarrage retardé et rappeler les bénéfices ignorés après remboursement."
  ],
  "entrees": [
    "prj_flux_mensuels",
    "prj_sensibilite"
  ],
  "resultat_pedagogique": "Le cumul vaut −40 000 euros au mois zéro, −16 000 à douze mois, −2 000 à dix-neuf et zéro à vingt. Le retour simple central est vingt mois à partir de l'entrée en régime. Trois mois de retard des bénéfices, avec dépenses récurrentes dès le premier mois, le déplaceraient à environ vingt-trois mois et trois semaines (23,75 mois) ; ces mois ne sont pas des dates civiles d'avril 2026.",
  "livrables": [
    "Calendrier des flux cumulés",
    "Mois de couverture avec hypothèses",
    "Comparaison d'un retard de montée en charge"
  ],
  "vigilance": [
    "Un retour simple ne tient pas compte de l'actualisation.",
    "Investissement / flux annuel n'est valide qu'avec flux constants et immédiats.",
    "Ne pas choisir sur le seul remboursement le plus rapide."
  ],
  "lecons": [
    "dossier-economique-roi",
    "gains-reels"
  ],
  "phases": [
    "definir",
    "ameliorer",
    "controler"
  ],
  "statut_donnees": "entierement_synthetiques",
  "scenario": {
    "id": "CAS-CMD",
    "nom": "Fiabiliser les commandes complètes",
    "perimetre": "De la demande validée à la réception par le client",
    "debut": "2026-03-02",
    "fin": "2026-06-28",
    "statut": "Jeu synthétique de référence et après simulé, projection financière séparée"
  },
  "tables": {
    "prj_flux_mensuels": [
      {
        "id": "FM00",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 0,
        "flux_net_centimes": -4000000,
        "cumul_centimes": -4000000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM01",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 1,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -3800000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM02",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 2,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -3600000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM03",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 3,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -3400000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM04",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 4,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -3200000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM05",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 5,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -3000000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM06",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 6,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -2800000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM07",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 7,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -2600000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM08",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 8,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -2400000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM09",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 9,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -2200000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM10",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 10,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -2000000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM11",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 11,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -1800000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM12",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 12,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -1600000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM13",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 13,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -1400000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM14",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 14,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -1200000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM15",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 15,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -1000000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM16",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 16,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -800000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM17",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 17,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -600000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM18",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 18,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -400000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM19",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 19,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": -200000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM20",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 20,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 0,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM21",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 21,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 200000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM22",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 22,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 400000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM23",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 23,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 600000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM24",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 24,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 800000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM25",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 25,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 1000000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM26",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 26,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 1200000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM27",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 27,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 1400000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM28",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 28,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 1600000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM29",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 29,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 1800000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM30",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 30,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 2000000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM31",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 31,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 2200000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM32",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 32,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 2400000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM33",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 33,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 2600000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM34",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 34,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 2800000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM35",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 35,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 3000000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "FM36",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "mois_relatif": 36,
        "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
        "cumul_centimes": 3200000,
        "statut": "projection_sans_montee_en_charge",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      }
    ],
    "prj_sensibilite": [
      {
        "id": "S00",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "libelle": "Central",
        "type_variation": "central",
        "volume_annuel": 12500,
        "part_initiale_incomplete": 0.12,
        "part_cible_incomplete": 0.02,
        "incidents_evites_annuels": 1250,
        "cout_evitable_centimes": 2400,
        "investissement_centimes": 4000000,
        "recurrent_annuel_centimes": 600000,
        "retard_gains_mois": 0,
        "flux_net_annuel_centimes": 2400000,
        "flux_sur_36_mois_centimes": 7200000,
        "roi_36_mois_pct": 80.0,
        "retour_mois": 20.0,
        "statut": "hypothese_sans_probabilite",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "S01",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "libelle": "Volume seulement : -20 %",
        "type_variation": "un_parametre",
        "volume_annuel": 10000,
        "part_initiale_incomplete": 0.12,
        "part_cible_incomplete": 0.02,
        "incidents_evites_annuels": 1000,
        "cout_evitable_centimes": 2400,
        "investissement_centimes": 4000000,
        "recurrent_annuel_centimes": 600000,
        "retard_gains_mois": 0,
        "flux_net_annuel_centimes": 1800000,
        "flux_sur_36_mois_centimes": 5400000,
        "roi_36_mois_pct": 35.0,
        "retour_mois": 26.666666666666668,
        "statut": "hypothese_sans_probabilite",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "S02",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "libelle": "Cible seulement : 96 % complètes",
        "type_variation": "un_parametre",
        "volume_annuel": 12500,
        "part_initiale_incomplete": 0.12,
        "part_cible_incomplete": 0.04,
        "incidents_evites_annuels": 1000,
        "cout_evitable_centimes": 2400,
        "investissement_centimes": 4000000,
        "recurrent_annuel_centimes": 600000,
        "retard_gains_mois": 0,
        "flux_net_annuel_centimes": 1800000,
        "flux_sur_36_mois_centimes": 5400000,
        "roi_36_mois_pct": 35.0,
        "retour_mois": 26.666666666666668,
        "statut": "hypothese_sans_probabilite",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "S03",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "libelle": "Part évitable seulement : 18 euros",
        "type_variation": "un_parametre",
        "volume_annuel": 12500,
        "part_initiale_incomplete": 0.12,
        "part_cible_incomplete": 0.02,
        "incidents_evites_annuels": 1250,
        "cout_evitable_centimes": 1800,
        "investissement_centimes": 4000000,
        "recurrent_annuel_centimes": 600000,
        "retard_gains_mois": 0,
        "flux_net_annuel_centimes": 1650000,
        "flux_sur_36_mois_centimes": 4950000,
        "roi_36_mois_pct": 23.75,
        "retour_mois": 29.090909090909093,
        "statut": "hypothese_sans_probabilite",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "S04",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "libelle": "Investissement seulement : +10 %",
        "type_variation": "un_parametre",
        "volume_annuel": 12500,
        "part_initiale_incomplete": 0.12,
        "part_cible_incomplete": 0.02,
        "incidents_evites_annuels": 1250,
        "cout_evitable_centimes": 2400,
        "investissement_centimes": 4400000,
        "recurrent_annuel_centimes": 600000,
        "retard_gains_mois": 0,
        "flux_net_annuel_centimes": 2400000,
        "flux_sur_36_mois_centimes": 7200000,
        "roi_36_mois_pct": 63.63636363636363,
        "retour_mois": 22.0,
        "statut": "hypothese_sans_probabilite",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "S05",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "libelle": "Démarrage des gains retardé de trois mois",
        "type_variation": "un_parametre",
        "volume_annuel": 12500,
        "part_initiale_incomplete": 0.12,
        "part_cible_incomplete": 0.02,
        "incidents_evites_annuels": 1250,
        "cout_evitable_centimes": 2400,
        "investissement_centimes": 4000000,
        "recurrent_annuel_centimes": 600000,
        "retard_gains_mois": 3,
        "flux_net_annuel_centimes": 2400000,
        "flux_sur_36_mois_centimes": 6450000,
        "roi_36_mois_pct": 61.25,
        "retour_mois": 23.75,
        "statut": "hypothese_sans_probabilite",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "S06",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "libelle": "Prudent combiné",
        "type_variation": "combine_sans_probabilite",
        "volume_annuel": 10000,
        "part_initiale_incomplete": 0.12,
        "part_cible_incomplete": 0.04,
        "incidents_evites_annuels": 800,
        "cout_evitable_centimes": 1800,
        "investissement_centimes": 4400000,
        "recurrent_annuel_centimes": 700000,
        "retard_gains_mois": 3,
        "flux_net_annuel_centimes": 740000,
        "flux_sur_36_mois_centimes": 1860000,
        "roi_36_mois_pct": -57.72727272727273,
        "retour_mois": 77.1891891891892,
        "statut": "hypothese_sans_probabilite",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      },
      {
        "id": "S07",
        "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
        "libelle": "Favorable combiné",
        "type_variation": "combine_sans_probabilite",
        "volume_annuel": 15000,
        "part_initiale_incomplete": 0.12,
        "part_cible_incomplete": 0.01,
        "incidents_evites_annuels": 1650,
        "cout_evitable_centimes": 2600,
        "investissement_centimes": 3800000,
        "recurrent_annuel_centimes": 550000,
        "retard_gains_mois": 0,
        "flux_net_annuel_centimes": 3740000,
        "flux_sur_36_mois_centimes": 11220000,
        "roi_36_mois_pct": 195.26315789473685,
        "retour_mois": 12.192513368983958,
        "statut": "hypothese_sans_probabilite",
        "preuve_id": "PRJ-E03"
      }
    ]
  },
  "resultats": [
    {
      "mois_relatif": 0,
      "flux_net_centimes": -4000000,
      "cumul_centimes": -4000000
    },
    {
      "mois_relatif": 12,
      "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
      "cumul_centimes": -1600000
    },
    {
      "mois_relatif": 19,
      "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
      "cumul_centimes": -200000
    },
    {
      "mois_relatif": 20,
      "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
      "cumul_centimes": 0
    },
    {
      "mois_relatif": 24,
      "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
      "cumul_centimes": 800000
    },
    {
      "mois_relatif": 36,
      "flux_net_centimes": 200000,
      "cumul_centimes": 3200000
    }
  ],
  "preuves": [
    {
      "id": "PRJ-E03",
      "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD",
      "type": "protocole",
      "titre": "Protocole économique",
      "description": "Années relatives à l'entrée en régime du scénario. Le modèle central suppose des bénéfices immédiatement réguliers à cette date ; il ne les fait pas commencer au lancement du projet en avril. Actualisation annuelle à fin d'année pour la VAN, taux illustratif de 8 %. Ni fiscalité, financement, valeur résiduelle ni rémunération du temps libéré.",
      "statut": "hypothese",
      "date": "2026-04-30"
    }
  ],
  "colonnes": {
    "prj_flux_mensuels": [
      {
        "name": "id",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "scenario_id",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "mois_relatif",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "flux_net_centimes",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "cumul_centimes",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "statut",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "preuve_id",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      }
    ],
    "prj_sensibilite": [
      {
        "name": "id",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "scenario_id",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "libelle",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "type_variation",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "volume_annuel",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "part_initiale_incomplete",
        "type": "REAL",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "part_cible_incomplete",
        "type": "REAL",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "incidents_evites_annuels",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "cout_evitable_centimes",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "investissement_centimes",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "recurrent_annuel_centimes",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "retard_gains_mois",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "flux_net_annuel_centimes",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "flux_sur_36_mois_centimes",
        "type": "INTEGER",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "roi_36_mois_pct",
        "type": "REAL",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "retour_mois",
        "type": "REAL",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "statut",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      },
      {
        "name": "preuve_id",
        "type": "TEXT",
        "not_null": true
      }
    ]
  }
}