{ "slug": "ishikawa", "nom": "Diagramme d'Ishikawa", "numero": 30, "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "question": "Quelles hypothèses méritent une vérification et que permet réellement de conclure l'essai ?", "consigne": "Construire les branches à partir de l'effet précis, conserver les contre-exemples, puis confronter les hypothèses documentaires aux 80 rejeux du sous-cas expérimental.", "etapes": [ "Écrire l'effet : 120 commandes incomplètes sur 1 000 à réception client en mars.", "Répartir les six hypothèses et leurs contre-exemples ; aucune branche n'est vraie par sa place.", "Lire séparément les 24 traces choisies et les 80 rejeux contrôlés.", "Retenir la concordance et la protection comme pistes étayées dans le jeu, puis préparer une confirmation sur les commandes réelles." ], "entrees": [ "ana_hypotheses", "ana_traces_commandes", "ana_essais_controles" ], "resultat_pedagogique": "Dans les rejeux, les quatre conditions produisent 16/20, 6/20, 2/20 et 0/20 incomplètes. À vérification absente, rendre le document concordant fait passer de 16 à 2 erreurs sur les mêmes 20 dossiers. Une liste vérifiée protège aussi partiellement un document discordant. Ces effets synthétiques ne sont ni les taux clients 88/98 %, ni une preuve des gains annuels.", "livrables": [ "Ishikawa à six branches avec statut des hypothèses", "Plan de vérification et synthèse du protocole contrôlé" ], "vigilance": [ "Un diagramme n'est pas une preuve.", "La sélection 12/12 ne mesure pas une prévalence ; les rejeux ne constituent pas un pilote représentatif.", "Ne pas transformer les hypothèses de formation, de disponibilité ou de gouvernance en causes confirmées." ], "lecons": [ "hypotheses-causes" ], "phases": [ "analyser" ], "statut_donnees": "entierement_synthetiques", "scenario": { "id": "CAS-CMD", "nom": "Fiabiliser les commandes complètes", "perimetre": "De la demande validée à la réception par le client", "debut": "2026-03-02", "fin": "2026-06-28", "statut": "Jeu synthétique de référence et après simulé, projection financière séparée" }, "tables": { "ana_hypotheses": [ { "id": "ANA-H01", "famille": "Méthodes", "hypothese": "Le document utilisé ne reprend pas la dernière modification de commande.", "verification": "Comparer versions attendue/utilisée et reconstituer les heures de transmission.", "contre_exemple": "Les commandes modifiées utilisant un document concordant restent-elles touchées ?", "preuve_id": "ANA-E03", "statut": "Etayee_dans_essai_synthetique", "conclusion": "L'effet de concordance est étayé dans les 80 rejeux ; pas de généralisation automatique au terrain.", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "date_statut": "2026-04-24" }, { "id": "ANA-H02", "famille": "Méthodes", "hypothese": "L'absence d'une vérification de liste laisse partir des manques.", "verification": "Croiser concordance et présence de la vérification dans un même protocole.", "contre_exemple": "Une vérification correctement appliquée protège-t-elle aussi un dossier non concordant ?", "preuve_id": "ANA-E03", "statut": "Protection_etayee_dans_essai_synthetique", "conclusion": "La vérification réduit les erreurs du jeu ; elle ne remplace pas la maîtrise de la version documentaire.", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "date_statut": "2026-04-24" }, { "id": "ANA-H03", "famille": "Matières", "hypothese": "Un composant manque au point de préparation.", "verification": "Tracer disponibilités et substitutions pour les commandes manquantes et complètes.", "contre_exemple": "Les mêmes produits sont-ils disponibles sur les cas sans manque ?", "preuve_id": "ANA-E04", "statut": "A_verifier", "conclusion": "Aucune mesure de disponibilité n'est fournie ; ne pas rejeter ni confirmer cette piste.", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "date_statut": "2026-04-24" }, { "id": "ANA-H04", "famille": "Milieu", "hypothese": "Les interruptions pendant les changements de commande favorisent les omissions.", "verification": "Relever les interruptions avec charge, horaires et type de commande.", "contre_exemple": "L'écart persiste-t-il à charge comparable sans interruption ?", "preuve_id": "ANA-E04", "statut": "A_verifier", "conclusion": "Une impression de surcharge n'est pas une preuve ; prévoir des observations respectueuses du travail.", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "date_statut": "2026-04-24" }, { "id": "ANA-H05", "famille": "Main-d'œuvre", "hypothese": "Les nouveaux modes de traitement ne sont pas encore compris par tous.", "verification": "Vérifier la réalisation guidée sur un cas, les consignes accessibles et les moyens.", "contre_exemple": "Des personnes formées échouent-elles aussi avec une information obsolète ?", "preuve_id": "ANA-E04", "statut": "A_verifier", "conclusion": "Rechercher conditions et compétences sans attribuer le problème à un manque d'attention.", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "date_statut": "2026-04-24" }, { "id": "ANA-H06", "famille": "Mesure", "hypothese": "Le contrôle avant expédition et le constat client utilisent des définitions différentes.", "verification": "Faire qualifier indépendamment des exemples selon une définition partagée.", "contre_exemple": "Les décisions concordent-elles une fois les mêmes éléments comparés ?", "preuve_id": "ANA-E04", "statut": "A_verifier", "conclusion": "Le taux principal reste la complétude à réception client ; la protection avant expédition est distincte.", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "date_statut": "2026-04-24" } ], "ana_traces_commandes": [ { "id": "ANA-TR-001", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0001", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-002", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0006", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-003", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0009", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-004", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0023", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-005", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0033", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-006", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0034", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-007", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0047", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-008", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0060", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-009", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0070", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-010", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0072", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-011", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0077", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-012", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0083", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-013", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0002", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-014", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0003", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-015", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0004", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 1, "document_discordant": 1, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-016", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0005", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-017", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0007", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-018", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0008", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-019", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0010", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-020", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0011", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-021", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0012", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-022", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0013", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-023", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0014", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" }, { "id": "ANA-TR-024", "commande_id": "CMD-BASELINE-0015", "sous_echantillon": "selection_12_incompletes_12_completes", "version_attendue": 2, "version_utilisee": 2, "document_discordant": 0, "incomplete_client": 0, "preuve_id": "ANA-E02" } ], "ana_essais_controles": [ { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-11", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-11", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C041", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 1, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-11-01", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-01", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 2, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-01-10", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-10", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 3, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-18", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-18", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 4, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-16", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-16", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C042", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 5, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-01-20", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-20", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C042", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 6, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-10", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-10", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 7, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-10-08", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-08", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C042", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 8, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-10-18", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-18", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 9, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-09", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-09", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 10, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-11-02", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-02", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 11, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-07", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-07", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C041", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 12, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-05", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-05", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 13, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-13", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-13", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 14, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-10-07", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-07", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C041", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 15, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-17", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-17", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 16, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-01-01", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-01", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 17, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-01-18", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-18", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 18, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-01-09", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-09", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 19, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-01-07", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-07", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C041", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 20, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-10-14", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-14", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C040", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 21, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-00-04", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-04", "document_concordant": 0, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 1, "operateur_id": "C042", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 22, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-11-07", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-07", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C041", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 23, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-10-15", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-15", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C041", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 24, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-11-15", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-15", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C041", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 25, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-11-13", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-13", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 1, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C039", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 26, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-10-20", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-20", "document_concordant": 1, "liste_verifiee": 0, "incomplete_rejeu": 0, "operateur_id": "C042", "articles_commandes": 8, "ordre_essai": 27, "preuve_id": "ANA-E03" }, { "id": "ANA-ESS-01-02", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "dossier_rejeu": "ANA-DOS-02", 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Les résultats sont fabriqués pour apprendre la méthode ; ils ne démontrent aucun résultat réel et ne prédisent ni le taux client ni le ROI.", "statut": "simule", "date": "2026-04-22" }, { "id": "ANA-E04", "scenario_id": "CAS-CMD", "type": "plan_verification", "titre": "Décisions sur le statut des hypothèses", "description": "Synthèse du 24 avril après les hypothèses du 20, les traces du 21 et les rejeux du 22 avril. La concordance et la vérification sont étayées seulement dans cet essai synthétique. 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